The joke in the smartphone space in years past was how screens just kept getting bigger stretching palms and making you look ridiculous when held up to the head to talk.
How times change. Talking into phones? Why, how 2005 of you! Phablets have long been the new normal as thetelephone icon lost out in the war to capture our attention via finger-flicking touchscreen fun losing out to all the other apps offering more visual ways to be entertained and/or communicate, be it by text, selfie lens or silly GIF.
Apple, a laggard at inflating smartphone screen size, has remained something of a reluctant participant in this bigger is better logic. Evident in its tortured sloganizing for its very first phablet, the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Plus which it launched in 2014 and stuck next to the words: bigger than bigger. The less said about which the better.
The iPhone-makers reluctance to participate in the pant-stretching smartphone craze has also included an attempt to buck the trend, by reviving in 2016 the 4-inch form iPhone factor, and putting a bit more heft under the hood, aka theiPhone SE.
Its continued to range this littlest iPhone alongside its 4.7-inch standard flagship and 5.5-inch top of the range phablet. But analyst projections suggest declining demand for SE-sized smartphones in the coming years as phablets are set to take a greater and greater share of the market.
tl;dr the phablet is now the smartphone fixture.
Analyst IDCput out its latest smartphone market projections yesterday, and looking ahead to 2021 it sees shipments of devices with screens of 4-inches (up to less than 5-inches) losing out to those with larger panes. Its projecting 314.2M million devices in this iPhone SE size category will ship worldwide this year shrinking to 223.3M by 2021.
Meanwhile, its expecting the vast bulk of the smartphone market to become almost equally divided between devices with screens of between 5-inches and less than 5.5-inches, and those with screens of 5.5-inches and under 6-inches expecting shipments to grow from 593.3M and 558.7M this year respectively, to 731.4M and 749.3M by 2021.
Which means phablets or phones verging on phablet territory really are the future. Or the phuture if you prefer (hattip to my colleague Jon Russell for that quip).
As with most inflationary issues, the line between the smartphone and the phablet has shifted over time as phones have swelled in size so while a phablet used to start around the 5-inch mark (or even a little less), its now more typically 5.5-inches+.
So its possible that by 2021 it may have been pushed out a bit further still.
That said, IDC isnt expecting much market change for the very biggest smartphones (of between 6-inches to under 7-inches). Its expecting shipments in this whopper category to be 32M this year and to have grown only slightly to 37.4M by 2021.
So perhaps more likely: a smartphone will simply become synonymous with a device that has a screen size of between 5 and 6 inches. And the word phablet will end up being reserved for the minority up to seven inches proper whopper category.
Which just goes to show that winning isnt always what its cracked up to be if youre a weird-sounding word that nobody liked in the first place.
When it comes to smartphone displays, size certainly matters, and the smallest displays (of less than 4 inches look set to disappear entirely). But being the biggest isnt the best, either effectively over six inches you have a clumsily large phone and/or a small and therefore not very useful tablet. Its all about finding the sweet-spot based on device utility: i.e. visual, sensory computing combined with portability.
And that smartphone screen size sweet-spot looks firmly settled at between 5 and 6 inches for the foreseeable future. At least until the computing paradigm shifts again and some kind of socially acceptable wearable manages to lift everyones eyes off attention-sucking glass slabs with an augmented vista of the real world instead. At least thats one theory.
Until then, wed like between five and six inches of touchscreen glass please.